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Nostalgia is heavy in any Presidential Election. Reporters love to look back, make comparisons and use the past for prediction. Forty years later, "The Boys on the Bus" by Timothy Crouse, is ample fodder.  Crouse's book gave us pack journalists and "What's the lead, Walter!" He was aimed at the fact that in 1972, a good story for a heavily covered topic was copacetic with what other writers were submitting, especially the ones from the strongest agencies. Dr. Scotton emphasized the sentiment with stories of late-night Editor phone calls to chastise reporters for not following the AP.

What's funny to me is that Hunter S. Thompson's "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72" covers the exact same campaign with a vastly different approach. In addition to his objective or "gonzo" writing style, he also brought us the mojo wire (fax machine), precursor to the now essential smart phone. Thompson was running outside the norm. This according to himself and to Crouse, who were both covering the 1972 campaign for Rolling Stone. Hunter S. Thompson was the fly in the ointment that drove some of the objectivity and the aggressive search for differentiation that motivates most writers today.  

Flash forward and we see NBC's 2012 group of campaign embeds profiled on Rock Center. A different type of campaign coverage, but following the same non-stop schedule, competitive crowd and elation from being a part of such a major moment in history. The motivation for the profiles was two-fold in my opinion. Appreciation for their effort was certainly one. Building on that appreciation was the reward for their efforts in the form of an amazing future. These young journalists took up an overwhelming task and performed exceptionally.  Experiences and relationships they built during their sometimes excruciating journey puts them in a position well beyond those unable to take such a large risk. In class we also reviewed Jake Tapper of ABCNews.com's 13 Pieces of Campaign Advice for Young Reporters. Each of the embed reporters profiled exemplified these traits before they were even chosen for the 2012 campaigns. The same traits that have led to us discuss works by writers like Crouse and Thompson four decades later.  
 
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As the August RNC approaches, Tampa is preparing.  Heavy focus is on their "readiness" and many of their high-level officials and municipal teams have met with the FBI. The area has invested large portions of their budget to update equipment and add staff for the convention.  Concern is mainly focused on the potential for protest rather than the influx of convention attendees. Republicans are sorely aware that issues brought out during the nomination race have created unexpected ire.
The women's health battle has left many female Republicans in the Tampa area disenchanted with the party.  According to an April 9th article in the Tampa Bay Times, "The biggest threat may turn out to be people like St. Petersburg retiree Lorraine McCann, who started volunteering for the Obama campaign in February when Planned Parenthood and women's health care suddenly became a central issue in the country's political debate." Speculation has begun about potential VPs.  The front runner, according to a CNN Poll, is former Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice.  Will she be enough to help soften the backlash from women voters?

Adam C. Smith, Tampa Bay Times Political Editor wanted to delve deeper into the problems that face the GOP candidate.  Enlisting a focus group of 12 Florida Republicans, Smith gathered heavy insight.  Many of the participants expressed concern over Romney's personality and approachability.  "I just haven't seen the regular guy side of him," said 27-year-old Jonathan Rosa." One member of the group even said that they thought Santorum and Gingrich had more of the personality traits they liked because of their performance during the debates.  Based on what Smith saw, he leaves readers with more doubt to Romney's potential to win than his presumptive nominee status.
 
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I was really eager to find out more from Charles Franklin, Founder of PollsandVotes.com and the Director of the Marquette Law School Poll about online poll standards. As noted in my previous blog post, he paid JOUR4953 a visit this week.   Franklin had a good deal more than that to share and I believe that he brought our group a better understanding of the value of polling.  Much of it had to do with his enthusiasm and self-proclaimed "OCD" on the topic.  To highlight some problems with poll data reporting, Franklin mentioned a Time Magazine Poll on George W. Bush's approval ratings that really he said still "sticks in my craw!" His contention was that when you don't look at the aggregate data and only take the results from two points/dates, you not only miss the actual change, you use misleading data.  From his example, I was concerned with how I had been looking at and possibly misusing data.

Franklin's discussion flowed into why message control matters and why opinion polls matter.  Wording that pollsters use can mitigate or create bias.  Asking someone a question like "have you stopped beating your dog?" gives them no real choice.  Organizations that are paying for a poll may actually be anticipating the results they want and will framework the questions to meet their needs.  As he explained the finer points of polling needs, use and impact, I realized that the work went beyond writing questions. Analysis of polling data is a statistical nightmare, or dream-come-true if you like that kind of thing.  When Franklin was asked to define margin of error, he avoided giving us the formula above and kept it simple.  Consider doing the same poll 20 times, with a margin of error of 3 points, you would get the exact same results 19 times with only one resulting in a variance of 3.  I say, trust the experts.

Luckily, I was able to ask why Franklin said that online polling was still in an "R&D" phase.  His response required him to first explain that sampling is a proven statistical model, "You don't have to drink the whole pot of soup to make sure it'll taste good!"  Methodology also requires randomization and equal distribution, which he equated to stirring the pot of soup and grabbing a spoonful to sample.  Truly an effective way to explain something that is overly statistical. Phone polling participation has gone from 90% down to 20% in the past two decades, but still follows proven methodology. Online sampling will need to find a way to develop a statistical model that can prove accuracy from a non-random sample group. I'm glad he clarified, but I'm fully convinced that online polling will be the method of the future.  I am also certain that soup is in my future, too!
 
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Polling has an impact on a variety of industries.  My background in marketing and public relations has certainly required use of polls.  For online retailers a "fun" poll on their website creates an interaction with a visitor that has the potential for them to share the poll with friends.  These less sophisticated, entertainment type polls can also be used to create media buzz.  As noted in the New York Times polling standards, datal like this wouldn't be the model of accuracy, but it could be used in discussion and to bring some levity to the commentary.  Since 2000, BuyCostumes.com has been able to use this poll for mentions in national media with great success. 
 
While a poll regarding mask sales is interesting, political polls hold much higher requirements in the selection of their sample group, method of data collection and analysis for presentation of their findings.  While watching the presentation of the February 2012 "On the Issues: Marquette Law Poll" in class, my curiosity was piqued when Charles Franklin highlighted how wording impacts responses.  In the presentation, Franklin showed the question regarding iron-ore mining in Northern Wisconsin as posed by the Marquette Law Poll compared to the question the PPP used on the same issue.  The differences in wording enforced the responsibility of the poll conductor to remove bias and avoid inferring which answer is "right".  As a journalist, the level of insight into how a poll is conducted can also mean maintaining a high level of skepticism.  

To help avoid the use of lower quality polling data, most organizations set standards that exclude new media data collection.  In preparation for Franklin's visit to my JOUR4953 class, I was motivated by the February 15, 2012 post on his blog, PollsandVotes.com, "...a tremendous number of state polls are not reportable because they lack live interviewers, randomized in-household selection, and omit cell phones."  If an online poll can provide unbiased questions, target a legitimate sample and have a secure method of reporting, I agree with Franklin's position that new methods can be used as appropriate sources.  Clearly a retailer poll isn't where I would look to collect information to report on Super Tuesday's voting, but the option to refer to online polls shouldn't be eliminated.  Fewer and fewer people have landlines and of that number, many are unwilling to participate in polls.  With some enforceable standards and transparency into the collection methods, online polling will take a place as a valid resource.  
 
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Tuesday's discussion about the pitfalls of student blogging assignments really got my gears grinding.  Looking at the comments from professors regarding the problems they found with student posts raised several flags in my mind. Assignment. Beat. Required. Minimum. Those were the worst motivations to write anything that would be interesting or help me to develop better writing skills. Something came to mind about excitement and creating a freshness in anything you are assigned to write. The photo above is from 1989. I was a Junior working on the Brown Deer High School newspaper, The Falcon. I'm the one on the right, trying to look professional with a notebook and pen. It was student media day with the Milwaukee Admirals and we really just went to stare at the players. Hockey is fun to watch, but I wasn't a sports fan.  What I could be was a good journalist and find a way to make the subject worth writing about. Why had I forgotten that?

Over the years friends have suggested I write a blog. Funny stories about my Mom are the biggest request. (She's Korean and intense - but that's a whole other story.) Once in a great while I've posted some rants on Facebook.   I love making lists and used to post them. The commitment of a blog was a little more responsibility that I felt ready for. Professionally, I use blogs all the time to stay current on techniques, technology and business. Forums are another tool I depend on. Before I wrench on my Jeep, I consult the JeepForum and post questions or let others know if their advice worked out. All of these things are what I should have been using to motivate my blog for class with perspective and enthusiasm.

The problem is that calling it "student blogging" implies less authority. Is a lower level of writing acceptable because it's from a student?  No.  Bloggers have a responsibility to the Internet as a whole.  Not just their classmates and instructors. Change the mindset, improve the quality. 

After identifying my faulty logic, a couple other things became clear. Having assigned subject matter shouldn't be stifling.  It's an opportunity to demonstrate your creativity in how you approach your topic and the different ways you can incorporate your knowledge. Thank goodness for due dates!  Structure is hard to create on your own.  The time I set aside to write my obligatory post should really be a chance to share something insightful with others. 

Success! The whole reason I signed up for #JOUR4953 was to improve my writing and become more productive overall. I was curious to see if I would make any progress over the course of the semester. Mission accomplished.

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    Blogging for my JOUR4953 course at Marquette University focusing on the 2012 elections and the media.

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